The Best NFL Mid-First-Round Picks in NFL Draft History: Stars that Had Teams Second-Guessing
Part 2 of a 3-part series leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft
If the top 10 of the NFL Draft is about hope and regret, the next stretch of picks is about something a little more complicated. It’s about teams that have talked themselves out of greatness.
The players chosen during this middle section of the first round weren’t supposed to define their draft classes. They were the ones who produced in college but entered draft day with question marks by their names.
They’re undersized. They played at smaller schools. They’re slow. They messed up off the field, their raps sheets were far from perfect, they didn’t pass the critical “eye test,” or the love the game … but they’re not in love with the game.
These are the players that, for one reason or another, made teams in desperate need for playmakers decide to go a different direction with top 10 picks. And when they mess up, their fans let them hear it, pointing to that No. 15 pick they could have had — the guy who became an All-Pro in just his second season — if only scouts had opened their eyes.
The bottom line is when you look at the best players who were drafted in the middle of the first round, you’ll find a lot of guys like these — game-changers, position redefiners, Hall of Famers, and GOATs who made all the question marks go away once they stepped on the field.
Who were the best of the best mid-first-round picks in NFL history? Take a look at our picks below and let us know what you think.
Pick No. 11: J. J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (2011)
J.J. Watt wasn’t viewed as a sure thing coming out of Wisconsin, partly because he didn’t put up eye-popping sack numbers and was still relatively new to the position after transferring from tight end. But scouts loved his motor, size, and versatility along the defensive line.
Houston eventually bit, choosing him 11th overall and expecting a high-effort contributor. Instead, Watt became the centerpiece of the defense.
During his career, he won three Defensive Player of the Year awards. He also refined what a modern, two-dimensional defensive lineman could do rushing the passer and disrupting plays at the line of scrimmage.
Why he slid: Limited college production and a non-traditional positional background created just enough doubt.
Pick No. 12: Warren Sapp, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1995)
Warren Sapp’s talent was never in question at Miami, where he dominated as an interior defensive lineman. What caused him to slide to No. 12 were concerns about a failed drug test leading up to the draft.
Tampa Bay took him anyway, and it paid off.
Sapp became the anchor of one of the best defenses of his era, combining quickness and power in a way that overwhelmed offensive lines. He earned Defensive Player of the Year honors, won a Super Bowl, and helped turn the Buccaneers into a consistent contender. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2013.
Why he slid: A pre-draft failed drug test raised red flags that pushed teams away despite obvious talent.
Pick No. 13: Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams (2014)
Aaron Donald’s dominance at Pitt was obvious, but because he was under 6 feet tall, some teams had concerns his size would limit him against NFL offensive linemen.
That hesitation pushed him to No. 13, where the Rams found a franchise cornerstone. His quickness off the snap and leverage from his smallish stature made him nearly unblockable.
Donald quickly became the most disruptive defensive player in the NFL. A three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Super Bowl champion, and future Hall of Famer, he set a new standard for interior defensive linemen in the modern era.
Why he slid: Teams conflated size with dominance and underestimated how elite quickness and technique can neutralize bigger blockers.
Pick No. 14: Jim Kelly, QB, Buffalo Bills (1983)
Jim Kelly’s path to the NFL wasn’t straightforward. Drafted 14th overall by the Bills in 1983, he initially chose to play in the USFL, which created uncertainty around his long-term future in the NFL.
That uncertainty contributed to his draft position despite his strong arm and leadership at Miami.
When Kelly eventually joined Buffalo, he became the engine of the K-Gun offense, leading the Bills to four straight Super Bowl appearances (but famously no championships) and establishing himself as one of the defining quarterbacks of his era, entering the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2002.
Why he slid: His decision to pursue the USFL created leverage concerns for NFL teams evaluating his commitment to the league.
Pick No. 15: Alan Page, DT, Minnesota Vikings (1967)
Coming out of Notre Dame in the late 1960s , Alan Page was known for his intelligence and technique as much as his athletic ability. But these traits didn't always push players to the very top of the draft at the time.
He was still chosen in the middle of the first round when Minnesota selected him 15th overall, and he became the heart of the Vikings’ famed “Purple People Eaters” defense.
Page’s quickness and instincts allowed him to dominate from the interior, earning him league MVP honors in 1971, a rare feat for a defensive player. This helped the eight-time Pro Bowler and future Hall of Famer solidify his place as one of the greatest linemen in NFL history.
Why he slid: The era's scouting culture undervalued interior technique and football IQ relative to measurable athleticism.
Pick No. 16: Jerry Rice, WR, San Francisco 49ers (1985)
Jerry Rice didn’t come from a powerhouse program. Having played college football at Mississippi Valley State, some teams questioned the level of competition he faced.
That uncertainty allowed him to fall to No. 16. San Francisco had the foresight to trade up to draft him, ensuring they secured a player who would become one of the best of all time.
Rice’s precise route running, work ethic, and durability quickly set him apart. Over time, he became the most productive wide receiver in NFL history, winning three Super Bowls and setting records that still define the position. He earned his place in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2010 — his first year of eligibility.
Why he slid: Playing at a small school against lesser competition made it easy for skeptical evaluators to find reasons to pass.
Pick No. 17: Emmitt Smith, RB, Dallas Cowboys (1990)
Emmitt Smith’s production as a Florida Gator was undeniable. But questions about his size and top-end speed caused some teams to hesitate during the NFL draft, allowing him to fall to No. 17. Dallas.
Smack-dab in the middle of a rebuild, the Cowboys saw him as the perfect fit for its offense, and Smith didn’t disappoint. He became the engine of the Cowboys’ dynasty in the 1990s, combining vision, toughness, and consistency.
Throughout his career, he won a league MVP, three Super Bowls, and retired as the NFL’s all-time leading rusher. His induction into the Hall of Fame in 2010 further validated the Cowboys’ belief when other franchises passed.
Why he slid: Teams overweighted combine measurables and underestimated how much football intelligence and contact balance matter at the running back position.
Pick No. 18: Art Monk, WR, Washington Redskins (1980)
Art Monk wasn’t viewed as a flashy prospect coming out of Syracuse, but his reliability and route-running stood out to Washington, which selected him 18th overall in the 1980 NFL Draft.
Monk became exactly what the team hoped for and more, proving to be a consistent, dependable target who thrived in multiple offensive systems. Over time, he became one of the most productive receivers of his era, helping Washington win three Super Bowls and eventually retiring as the NFL’s all-time leader in receptions.
He was officially inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, alongside longtime teammate Darrell Green, in 2008.
Why he slid: A lack of elite athleticism or a signature "wow" trait made it easy for teams to prioritize flashier options.
Pick No. 19: Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis Colts (1996)
Marvin Harrison’s production at Syracuse was strong, but his quiet demeanor and smaller frame led some teams to question whether he could hold up as a true No. 1 receiver in the NFL.
Indianapolis stepped in to give him a try, selecting him 19th overall. In response, Harrison e quickly developed into one of the league’s most precise route runners and Peyton Manning’s favorite target.
Paired with Manning, Harrison became a cornerstone of the Colts’ offense, earning multiple All-Pro honors, winning a Super Bowl, and setting a then-record for receptions in a single season. He was chosen to be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2016, honoring his productive 13-year career.
Why he slid: Quieter personalities and less physically imposing frames can cause evaluators to underestimate a player's ability to consistently create separation.
Pick No. 20: Steve Atwater, S, Denver Broncos (1989)
Steve Atwater’s physical style at Arkansas made him stand out, but safeties weren’t always highly prized early in the draft. This contributed to his 20th overall selection by the Broncos. Denver valued his ability to control the middle of the field, and Atwater delivered.
Known for his punishing hits and leadership, he became the backbone of the Broncos’ defense. His aggressive play helped his team win two Super Bowls. In the meantime, Atwater earned a reputation as one of the most feared safeties of his generation, which resulted in his recent Hall of Fame induction in 2020.
Why he slid: Positional value bias kept one of the era's most physically dominant defensive backs from being treated as a premium draft asset.
Pick No. 21: Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota Vikings (1998)
Few players in draft history have slid as far as Randy Moss relative to their talent.
At Marshall, Moss was a dominant deep threat, but off-field concerns and prior issues caused teams to hesitate. Minnesota took the chance at No. 21, and Moss immediately changed the Vikings offense. His speed and ball skills made him nearly impossible to defend, allowing him to set a rookie record with 17 touchdown catches.
Over time, Moss became one of the most explosive, productive, and highlighted receivers the NFL has ever seen — easily a top five all-time receiver on most lists. He made the Hall of Fame in 2018.
Why he slid: Off-field concerns overrode on-field evaluation for most franchises, despite a talent level that was impossible to argue with on film.
What the Best Mid-Round Picks Have in Common
Looking across picks 11 through 21, the pattern is consistent and worth noting heading into the 2026 NFL Draft:
The most common reason elite players slide is non-football concern. Sapp, Moss, and Kelly all fell due to factors that had nothing to do with their ability to play the game.
Size and measurables are consistently overrated. Donald, Smith, and Harrison all fell partly because evaluators trusted the tape less than the ruler.
Small school bias is real and expensive. Rice is the defining example, but the pattern shows up repeatedly across draft history.
When elite talent is available outside the top 10, teams who trust their evaluation are rewarded. Every player on this list made the franchises that drafted them look smart — and made everyone who passed look foolish.
This is Part 2 of a 3-part series leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft. Read Part 1: The Best and Worst Top-10 Picks in NFL Draft History and stay tuned for Part 3.
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